Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/17/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 17, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Tigers are currently 10-8 this season and are enjoying a solid start, while the Royals sit at 8-11, struggling to find their footing. In their last game, the Royals suffered a tough loss, which adds pressure as they look to turn the tide against a competitive Tigers squad.

Reese Olson is projected to take the mound for Detroit. Despite his 1-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.00, advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as his 3.97 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Olson's high groundball rate (49%) could work in his favor against a Royals lineup that has hit only 10 home runs this season, the fewest in MLB.

On the other side, Kansas City will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who has a respectable ERA of 3.71 this year. However, Lorenzen has struggled with strikeouts, boasting a K% of just 19.4%. This matchup could favor the Tigers, as their offense ranks 11th in MLB, while the Royals are languishing at 28th.

The projections indicate that the Tigers have a strong implied team total of 4.31 runs, suggesting confidence in their ability to capitalize on Lorenzen's low strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Kansas City's offense continues to falter, making it difficult to expect a robust performance against a capable Tigers bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB. With the stakes high, the Tigers are positioned well to take advantage of their home-field advantage and the Royals' ongoing struggles.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Among all starting pitchers, Michael Lorenzen's fastball spin rate of 2382.2 rpm is in the 79th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Kansas City Royals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Considering that groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Reese Olson and his 48.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this game squaring off against 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Colt Keith's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph figure last year has dropped off to 81-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 95 of their last 170 games (+16.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Michael Massey has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.90 Units / 98% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.1, Detroit Tigers 4.15

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.