Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 5/4/2025

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Kansas City Royals on May 4, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both teams are struggling to find their footing. The Orioles, with a record of 13-19, are having a tough season, while the Royals sit slightly better at 18-16 but are still underperforming overall. In their last meeting, the Royals edged out the Orioles, continuing a trend of competitive matchups in this series.

On the mound, the Orioles are projected to start Kyle Gibson, who has had a rough start to the season with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an alarming ERA of 22.09. Despite being ranked 192nd among MLB starting pitchers, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, as his 5.93 xFIP indicates he could improve. However, Gibson's low strikeout rate of 8.3% and tendency to keep the ball on the ground may not favor him against a Royals offense that struggles with power, tying for the fewest home runs in the league.

On the other side, Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for the Royals. His record stands at 3-3 with a solid ERA of 3.48. Although Lorenzen's projections suggest he could be in for a rough outing, his overall performance has been better than Gibson's this season.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 20th in the league, with their batting average at 25th. In contrast, the Royals are even worse, ranking 29th in overall offensive performance. Despite their struggles, the Orioles have an implied team total of 4.97 runs, indicating that betting markets see potential for their bats to wake up against a struggling Royals pitching staff.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Lorenzen is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88.1-mph EV last season has dropped to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals batters jointly rank 30th- in the game for power this year when using their 6% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Gibson must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot since the start of last season: 60.3% of the time, checking in at the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Heston Kjerstad has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 68% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+14.20 Units / 42% ROI)
• Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.8, Baltimore Orioles 4.95

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals
  • Kyle Gibson - Orioles

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