Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 4/3/2025

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 3, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Houston Astros at Target Field for the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves struggling early this season, each with a record of 2-4. The Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who has an impressive ERA of 1.80, although his 4.15 xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck so far. Ryan's strength lies in his ability to limit earned runs while being a high-flyball pitcher against an Astros offense that has hit only 2 home runs this season—the fewest in MLB.

The Astros will counter with Hunter Brown, who has a solid 3.00 ERA but struggles with control, evident in his 13.0% walk rate. While he boasts a high strikeout percentage of 30.4%, he faces a Twins offense that ranks 5th least in strikeouts. This matchup could tilt in the Twins' favor if they capitalize on Brown's control issues.

Interestingly, the Twins have a low implied team total of 3.62 runs, while the Astros are even lower at 3.38 runs, reflecting the betting markets' perception of this tightly contested matchup. Given the projections, Ryan's ability to keep the ball in the park could be pivotal against an Astros lineup that lacks power. With the stakes high and both pitchers looking to turn their seasons around, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle as each team seeks to improve their standings.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Out of all starters, Hunter Brown's fastball velocity of 96 mph grades out in the 88th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Brendan Rodgers tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Houston's 91.4-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #26 group of hitters in baseball since the start of last season by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Because flyball batters have a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Joe Ryan and his 41.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this game being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+14.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 147 games (+20.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+5.95 Units / 29% ROI)

• Date: April 3, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.