Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/6/2025

On May 6, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Houston Astros at American Family Field in an interleague matchup that promises to be competitive. The last time these teams met, the Brewers defeated the Astros, pushing Milwaukee to a 18-18 record this season, slightly better than Houston's 17-17. Both squads find themselves in the middle of the pack, making this game crucial for momentum as they vie for improved standings.

The Brewers will hand the ball to Chad Patrick, who has been an enigma this season. Despite a solid 2.87 ERA, he holds a 1-3 record in six starts, with a 4.45 xFIP suggesting he may have been riding some luck. Patrick's projections indicate he could pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but he has struggled with allowing too many hits and walks—5.1 hits and 1.2 walks per outing on average.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Hayden Wesneski, a right-handed pitcher with a 3.86 ERA and a 1-2 record. Wesneski is projected to pitch fewer innings, averaging 4.8 while allowing 2.3 earned runs—mimicking Patrick's tendency to struggle with hits, projected at 4.2 per game. Both pitchers seem set for a matchup where runs could be at a premium.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 23rd in the league, a point of concern, especially against the Astros, who are just slightly better at 18th overall. The Brewers do have a bright spot with their aggressive base running, ranking 3rd in stolen bases this season. In contrast, the Astros have struggled with power, sitting 22nd in home runs.

With both teams needing a win to gain some confidence, this matchup should be tightly contested, making for an intriguing betting opportunity with the Brewers currently sitting at a -115 moneyline.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hayden Wesneski has been one of the luckiest mound aces in baseball on balls in play this year with a .244 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Bats such as Victor Caratini with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chad Patrick who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Houston's 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in baseball: #29 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Chad Patrick (39.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 4 FB hitters in Houston's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brice Turang has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.19, Milwaukee Brewers 4.39

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Wesneski - Astros
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

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