Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/5/2025

Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 5, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Houston Astros at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams sit around the .500 mark, with the Brewers holding a record of 17-18, while the Astros are slightly better at 17-16. Despite their middling records, the stakes are high as they look to gain momentum early in the season.

Tobias Myers is set to take the mound for the Brewers. Myers has had a rough start to the season, posting a 5.14 ERA and ranking as the 222nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB according to advanced statistics. His projected performance today is average, with expectations of allowing around 2.7 earned runs over approximately 5.7 innings pitched. However, he faces a Houston lineup that has been less prone to strikeouts, which could neutralize his ability to capitalize on that aspect.

On the other side, Ronel Blanco will start for the Astros. Blanco carries a 5.08 ERA and a 2-2 record this season, which also reflects struggles on the mound. His projections suggest he might allow 2.7 earned runs in around 5.2 innings, but he has a favorable xERA of 3.45, indicating he’s been unlucky thus far.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 19th in MLB, struggling particularly with home runs, sitting at 23rd. In contrast, while the Astros also rank 18th overall, they have a better batting average at 15th. Both lineups have their weaknesses, particularly in power, with the Brewers and Astros both ranking poorly in home runs this season.

With the Brewers’ moneyline set at -115 and the Astros at -105, oddsmakers expect a closely contested game. Betting markets suggest a slight edge for Milwaukee, but with both teams struggling in various facets, it is anyone’s game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Ronel Blanco (38.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Milwaukee's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Altuve has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 79.1-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston's 88.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #29 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers has utilized his change-up 6.6% less often this year (4.6%) than he did last season (11.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Hitters such as Christian Yelich with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ronel Blanco who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.82 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.33, Milwaukee Brewers 4.56

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.