Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 4/27/2025

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Houston Astros on April 27, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams enter with average records, the Royals at 14-14 and the Astros at 13-13. This game marks the third in their series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum.

Kris Bubic is projected to start for the Royals, and while his current performance ranks him as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his ERA of 1.45 suggests he has enjoyed some good fortune this season. However, Bubic's 3.29 xFIP indicates he might be in for some regression moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs with a concerning average of 5.3 hits allowed.

In contrast, Brown, ranked 24th in MLB, has been stellar with a 1.16 ERA and a projection of 5.8 innings pitched. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (53% groundball rate) plays well against a Royals offense that has struggled, ranking 29th in overall offensive output and dead last in home runs this season.

Despite Kansas City's low implied team total of 3.52 runs, their ability to handle Brown’s low-walk approach may provide some opportunities. Meanwhile, Houston's bullpen is significantly stronger, ranked 9th compared to Kansas City's 22nd, making late-game situations potentially more favorable for the Astros.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Despite technically being the "starter" in today's matchup, Hunter Brown may not remain in the game more than a couple framess since he will be treated as more of an opener.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Yainer Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.7% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The Houston Astros have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kris Bubic in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 88.1-mph EV last year has lowered to 84.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Kansas City Royals have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.37, Kansas City Royals 4.01

• Date: April 27, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

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