Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 4/25/2025

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will host the Houston Astros on April 25, 2025, for the first game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. Both teams are in the middle of an uneven season, with the Royals sitting at 12-14 and the Astros at 13-11. Despite the tight records, the Astros have shown to be the stronger team overall, as indicated by their #9 ranking in bullpen effectiveness compared to the Royals, who rank #24.

In their last game, the Astros showcased their potential with a solid performance, but they will face a challenge against Royals’ starter Seth Lugo. Lugo, who has struggled at times this season with a 1-3 record and a solid ERA of 3.90, is projected to pitch around 6.3 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs. However, his high xFIP of 4.61 suggests he may be due for a regression, as he has been somewhat fortunate this season.

On the other side, Astros’ Hayden Wesneski comes in with a better xFIP of 3.01 and an average ERA of 3.91. While he has only made four starts, his projected performance indicates that he has been unfortunate rather than lucky. Wesneski is expected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow approximately 2.6 earned runs, giving Houston a slight edge on the mound.

When examining the offenses, the Royals are ranked a dismal #29 in MLB overall and last in home runs, while the Astros sit at #23 in the same category. Betting markets reflect this matchup’s competitiveness, with the Royals carrying a moneyline of +105 and Astros at -125. The game total is set at a modest 8.0 runs, indicating that runs could be hard to come by, especially given the Royals’ offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hayden Wesneski's fastball spin rate has risen 159 rpm this season (2273 rpm) over where it was last season (2114 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Over the past week, Yordan Alvarez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.1-mph EV last year has dropped to 83-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Houston Astros 4.53, Kansas City Royals 4.28

• Date: April 25, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Wesneski - Astros
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.