Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick & Preview – 4/11/2024

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 11, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • J.P. France - Astros
  • Brady Singer - Royals
• Run Line: Astros -1.5 125, Royals 1.5 -145
• Money Line: Astros -135, Royals 115
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Houston Astros - 55%
• Kansas City Royals - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Houston Astros - 48.51%
• Kansas City Royals - 51.49%

Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Houston Astros in an American League matchup at Kauffman Stadium on April 11, 2024. The Royals, with a season record of 8-4, are having a great season so far, while the struggling Astros hold a record of 4-9.

On the mound for the Royals is right-handed pitcher Brady Singer, who has been performing well this season. Singer has started two games, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 0.68. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may not perform as well going forward.

The Astros will counter with right-handed pitcher J.P. France, who has struggled this season. France has started two games, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.76. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Royals rank 14th in MLB, while the Astros rank 8th. The Royals have a balanced offense, ranking 19th in team batting average and 4th in stolen bases. However, they struggle with power, ranking 26th in team home runs. On the other hand, the Astros boast a strong offense, ranking 9th in team home runs and 12th in stolen bases.

According to the current odds, the Astros are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%, while the Royals have a 45% chance of winning. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game.

Overall, this matchup seems to favor the Astros, with their stronger offense and better bullpen. However, the Royals' solid season record and the performance of Brady Singer could make this a competitive game. As always, anything can happen in baseball, and both teams will be looking to secure the victory.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Extreme flyball bats like Alex Bregman tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brady Singer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The Kansas City Royals outfield defense grades out as the 11th-best out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nelson Velazquez has big-time power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (32.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher J.P. France struggles to strike batters out (4th percentile K%) — great news for Velazquez.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Salvador Perez, the Royals's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 82 away games (+21.70 Units / 20% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros 4.89 vs Kansas City Royals 4.78

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.