Houston Astros at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 8/5/2024

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: August 5, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros on August 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive American League West matchup that carries significant weight in their seasons. The Astros, with a record of 57-54, are sitting in a middle ground, while the Rangers, at 53-59, are struggling to find consistency. The stakes are high for Texas, who is looking to improve their below-average season.

In their last game, the Rangers faced a tough opponent and are hoping to bounce back after losing to the Boston Red Sox, while the Astros lost 1-0 to the Tampa Bay Rays. Andrew Heaney is projected to take the mound for the Rangers, and while his ERA sits at 4.12, his 4-11 record reflects the challenges he has faced this season. Heaney’s low walk rate (6.6 BB%) might play into the hands of the Astros, who have the 4th least walks in MLB, suggesting that Heaney's tendency to throw strikes could be a double-edged sword.

On the other side, the Astros will counter with Hunter Brown, who has been solid this year, holding a 4.11 ERA and a favorable 3.57 xFIP, indicating he could be due for better luck. The projections suggest Brown will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs. With the Astros ranking 10th in offensive production and 2nd in team batting average, they come into this game with the advantage in terms of hitting prowess.

This matchup is critical for both teams, especially as the Rangers aim to leverage their strong bullpen, currently ranked 4th in MLB, to support their struggling offense, which ranks 22nd. With the game total set at an average 8.5 runs, and the moneyline favoring the Astros at -125, it shapes up to be a tight contest.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Hunter Brown is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Globe Life Field — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 5th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (47.6% vs. 42.3% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.30 Units / 137% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.41 vs Texas Rangers 4.34

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