Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 6/9/2024

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Astros
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On June 9, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Houston Astros at Angel Stadium in an American League West showdown. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Angels holding a disappointing 24-39 record and the Astros slightly better at 29-35. Despite the subpar records, this matchup features intriguing pitching and offensive dynamics that could make for an exciting game.

The Angels will send left-hander Patrick Sandoval to the mound. Sandoval, despite his 2-8 record and a 5.00 ERA, is ranked as the 30th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. His 3.74 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky this year and could perform better moving forward. On the other side, the Astros will counter with veteran right-hander Justin Verlander, who owns a 3-2 record and a solid 3.63 ERA. However, Verlander's 4.72 xFIP indicates he might regress as the season progresses.

Offensively, the Astros have the upper hand. They rank 6th in overall offensive performance, 2nd in team batting average, and 3rd in home runs. Yainer Diaz has been red-hot for Houston, boasting a .375 batting average and a 1.500 OPS over the last week, including 4 home runs and 9 RBIs in just 4 games. The Angels, while not as potent overall, still pack a punch with the 6th most home runs in MLB and rank 9th in stolen bases. Willie Calhoun has been the standout for Los Angeles recently, hitting .333 over the last week.

The Angels' bullpen, ranked 28th, has been a glaring weakness, while the Astros' pen sits at a more respectable 14th. This disparity could be pivotal late in the game, especially considering the Angels' tendency to falter in close contests.

The betting markets currently favor the Astros with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% win probability. However, THE BAT X projects this as a much closer game, giving the Angels a 49% chance to win. This discrepancy suggests there may be value in betting on the Angels, particularly given Verlander's high flyball rate facing a powerful Angels lineup. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, expect a competitive affair where the underdog Angels could surprise and deliver a solid performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In terms of his batting average, Jose Abreu has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .218 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .262.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Patrick Sandoval has used his four-seam fastball 9.4% less often this year (16.1%) than he did last year (25.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Since the start of last season, Logan O'Hoppe's 15.3% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 92nd percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 97% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 4.95 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.24

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.