Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/13/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on April 13, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position, sitting at 4-11 this season. Their performance in yesterday's match was particularly disheartening, as they fell to the Tigers in a shutout, losing 4-0. In stark contrast, Detroit boasts a strong 9-5 record, showcasing their ability to navigate the early part of the season successfully.

On the mound, the Twins are set to start Simeon Woods Richardson, who is projected as the 128th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, a reflection of his below-average abilities. Woods Richardson has struggled this season, showcasing an ERA of 5.59 and a troubling Win/Loss record of 0-1. His xFIP of 4.65 suggests he may be due for some positive regression, but his performance thus far has left much to be desired. In his last outing, he pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs along with 4 walks, which certainly did not help his cause.

Opposing him will be Casey Mize of the Tigers, who has been nothing short of impressive with a 2-0 record and a stunning 0.77 ERA. While his high walk rate could pose issues, the Twins' offense ranks a dismal 26th in MLB, making it unlikely they will capitalize on Mize's control problems. Mize’s solid performance in his last start, where he allowed just 1 earned run and struck out 6 batters, adds to the confidence surrounding his potential effectiveness today.

Betting markets have set the moneyline for both teams at -110, indicating expectations of a closely contested game. However, given the current trajectories of both teams and their respective pitchers, the Tigers appear to hold the upper hand as they aim to continue their strong start against a struggling Twins squad.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize has utilized his slider 9.8% more often this year (37.1%) than he did last year (27.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Riley Greene has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 10% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Byron Buxton's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 91.7-mph average last year has fallen off to 86-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 86 away games (+1.75 Units / 2% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.7, Minnesota Twins 4.85

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.