Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 4/16/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on April 16, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the standings. The Brewers, currently at a .500 record of 9-9, are looking for consistency as they trail a competitive National League Central. In contrast, the Tigers boast a solid 10-7 record and are in the thick of things in the American League Central.

In their last matchup, the Tigers lost to the Brewers, despite their offensive prowess, which ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season. Despite their recent success, Detroit's offense struggles with taking bases, ranking 29th in stolen bases. The Brewers' bats, on the other hand, have been average, placing 21st overall, but they excel at stealing bases, ranking 9th.

On the mound, the Brewers will send out Jose Quintana, who has had a fortunate start to the season with a 0.00 ERA over 1 start. However, his 3.25 xFIP suggests that he may not be able to maintain such stellar numbers moving forward. Quintana’s left-handed delivery comes against a Tigers lineup that has the 3rd most strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving him an edge. Conversely, the Tigers counter with Keider Montero, whose struggles have left him among the worst in MLB in several categories, including his projected innings and earned runs allowed.

Given the Brewers' strong bullpen, ranked 8th in MLB, there’s a good chance they can capitalize on any early leads if they manage to get to Montero. The projections also favor the Brewers significantly in this matchup, giving them an implied team total of 4.31 runs. As they take the field at American Family Field, Milwaukee will aim to turn their season around while the Tigers look to maintain their momentum.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Given the 0.46 disparity between Keider Montero's 7.05 K/9 and his 7.51 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and figures to see positive regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Andy Ibanez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the best out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Sal Frelick is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Positioned 2nd-highest in MLB since the start of last season, Milwaukee Brewers hitters collectively have posted a 16.2° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable metric to evaluate power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 89 away games (+5.05 Units / 5% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 31% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.91, Milwaukee Brewers 4.56

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Keider Montero - Tigers
  • Jose Quintana - Brewers

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