Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 4/14/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As of April 14, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers sit with a record of 8-8, while the Detroit Tigers are enjoying a strong start to the season at 9-6. This interleague matchup at American Family Field marks the first game of their series, and while both teams are looking to establish momentum, the Tigers have the edge in performance thus far.

In their most recent contest, the Tigers were held to just one run, despite their status as the 5th best offense in MLB. The Brewers, meanwhile, have managed to rank a more modest 18th in offensive capability. The projections suggest that the Tigers will continue to perform well offensively against Tyler Alexander, who will be making his third start of the season.

Alexander, a left-handed pitcher, has an excellent ERA of 2.84 this season, but his 4.92 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate in his outings. He has shown average strikeout numbers, projecting to fan 5.3 batters today but is likely to struggle with 5.0 hits allowed. On the other hand, Tarik Skubal, another lefty for the Tigers, is projected to pitch 5.8 innings with a commendable 3.78 ERA. His strong performance has earned him a ranking as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, reflecting his elite status.

As the Brewers enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +140, their implied team total of 3.12 runs suggests that the odds-makers are not optimistic about their chances against the Tigers’ strong lineup. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, expectations lean toward a tightly contested battle, though the projections favor the Tigers to capitalize on their current form and the favorable pitching matchup.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Considering that flyball pitchers hold a substantial edge over flyball hitters, Tarik Skubal and his 44.9% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position in this outing squaring off against 4 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Spencer Torkelson has a ton of pop (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tyler Alexander has a pitch-to-contact profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Torkelson.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Andy Ibanez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Detroit Tigers have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Alexander in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Sal Frelick has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 78.8-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 21% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 86 games at home (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 91 of their last 170 games (+9.50 Units / 5% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+6.80 Units / 113% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.21, Milwaukee Brewers 3.36

• Date: April 14, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers
  • Tyler Alexander - Brewers

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