Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 3/29/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on March 29, 2025, they bring a commanding 4-0 record to the matchup, reflecting their strong start to the season. In contrast, the Tigers, struggling at 0-2, are desperate to turn their fortunes around. This game marks the third in the series, and both teams are eager to make their mark.

The Dodgers will send Roki Sasaki to the mound, who is ranked 78th among starting pitchers in MLB, boasting an excellent 3.00 ERA in his only start this year. However, with a concerning 7.21 xFIP, projections suggest that his luck may not hold, as he is expected to pitch an average of just 3.2 innings and allow 1.3 earned runs. Compounding his challenge, Sasaki has struggled with control, posting a high walk rate of 35.7%, which could spell trouble against a Tigers offense that ranks 4th in the league in drawing walks.

On the other side, Reese Olson takes the hill for the Tigers. Although he ranks slightly higher at 67th, Olson's projections paint a grim picture; he is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs over 4.7 innings, with high expected hits (4.5) and walks (1.9). Given the Dodgers’ potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB, Olson may find himself in a tough spot.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. With the Dodgers holding a sizeable moneyline of -200, it’s clear that the oddsmakers see them as heavy favorites. However, the projections leave room for intrigue; if the Tigers can capitalize on Sasaki's control issues, they might just surprise the Dodgers.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Throwing 91.5 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season on average, Reese Olson ranks in the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Roki Sasaki in the 89th percentile among all SPs in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 10th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

In today's matchup, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.6% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 75 games (+24.95 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 85 games (+19.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Reese Olson has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 65% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Roki Sasaki - Dodgers

Betting Odds

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