Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction – 5/4/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels will face off against the Detroit Tigers on May 4, 2025, at Angel Stadium, marking the fourth game in their series. Both teams enter this game with contrasting fortunes. The Angels sit at 13-19, struggling with an offense ranked 26th overall in MLB, while the Tigers are enjoying a solid season at 21-13, boasting the 7th best offense in the league.

Jack Kochanowicz, projected to start for the Angels, has had a tough year with a 1-4 record and a 5.29 ERA. Despite being ranked 210th among MLB starting pitchers, he presents some unique challenges. Kochanowicz is a low-strikeout pitcher with a 13.6 K% facing a Tigers lineup that strikes out frequently, potentially playing into his hands. Additionally, his 48% groundball rate may neutralize the Tigers' home run power.

Conversely, Reese Olson, the Tigers' starting pitcher, is having a strong season with a 3-2 record and a 3.55 ERA, ranking him as the 33rd best starter in MLB. Olson has been effective, but he struggles with walks, posting a 10.2 BB% in a matchup against an Angels offense that ranks 1st in least walks.

Given the Tigers' dominant performance and their strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, the Angels face a steep uphill battle. The projections suggest a challenging game for Los Angeles, with the Angels' implied team total set at 3.75 runs, reflecting their offensive struggles this season.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson is an extreme groundball pitcher (48.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jace Jung, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz's sinker rate has dropped by 22.5% from last season to this one (72.4% to 49.9%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Nolan Schanuel is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 10.5% Barrel% of the Los Angeles Angels makes them the #5 group of hitters in the game this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.40 Units / 19% ROI)
• Logan O'Hoppe has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 56% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.5, Los Angeles Angels 3.72

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

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