Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction – 4/28/2025

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the Detroit Tigers on April 28, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the American League. The Astros, currently holding a record of 14-13, are having an above-average season but find themselves struggling with a lackluster offense, ranked 27th in MLB. On the other hand, the Tigers boast an impressive 18-10 record and are enjoying a strong season, with their offense ranking 13th overall.

In their last outing, the Tigers faced the Baltimore Orioles, where they managed to secure a win, further solidifying their strong start to the season. The Astros, however, have been inconsistent, particularly with their offense, which has been unable to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Their struggles are highlighted by a mere 21 home runs this year, ranking 28th in the league.

On the mound, the Astros will send Ronel Blanco, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 5.01. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his expected ERA (xERA) sits at 3.63. Blanco's ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average could be crucial against the Tigers' offense. Conversely, Jack Flaherty will take the mound for the Tigers. With a solid ERA of 2.63 and a Power Rankings position of 54th among MLB starters, Flaherty has been effective, though projections indicate he may be due for some regression.

Given the Astros' offensive challenges and Flaherty's recent performance, the Tigers look poised to take advantage of this matchup. The low Game Total of 7.5 runs suggests a tightly contested game, with both teams projected to score around 3.75 runs. With the Tigers' top-tier bullpen ranked 1st in MLB, they could prove pivotal down the stretch. As both teams clash in this critical series opener, the Astros will need to find their rhythm if they hope to overcome the Tigers’ momentum.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty will hold the platoon advantage against 8 opposing bats in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Kerry Carpenter has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph dropping to 69.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Jace Jung, Spencer Torkelson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has put up a 12.9% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Extreme flyball bats like Jeremy Pena usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)
• Riley Greene has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 away games (+7.95 Units / 159% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.29, Houston Astros 4.21

• Date: April 28, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

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