Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 6/1/2024

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox, with a season record of 29-29, are having an average season so far. As the home team, they will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage. The Red Sox offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season, boasting a strong team batting average that ranks 3rd in the league. Their offense has been a key factor in their success.

On the pitching mound, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell. Criswell has started 9 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.96. While his projections for this game are not stellar, with an average of 5.0 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed, he will look to provide stability for the Red Sox.

The Detroit Tigers, with a season record of 28-29, are also having an average season. The Tigers offense ranks as the 20th best in MLB, with a low team batting average that ranks 27th in the league. They will need to step up their offensive game to compete against the Red Sox.

Taking the mound for the Tigers is right-handed pitcher Reese Olson. Olson has started 10 games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-5 and an impressive ERA of 1.92. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could regress in future performances.

According to THE BAT X, a leading MLB projection system, Olson is ranked as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his talent. Cooper Criswell, on the other hand, is ranked as the 176th best starting pitcher. While rankings are just a part of the analysis, they provide some insight into the pitchers' abilities.

With the Red Sox offense being stronger than the Tigers' offense, and Olson's strong performance this season, the Tigers may face a tough challenge. However, baseball is full of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring in this game. The Red Sox are slightly favored with a moneyline of -110, suggesting a close contest. Both teams have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, further supporting the notion of a closely contested game.

As we approach this game, the Tigers will aim to take advantage of Olson's strong pitching and provide run support for their offense. The Red Sox will rely on their potent offense and hope that Criswell can deliver a quality start.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson's change-up usage has spiked by 7.7% from last year to this one (15.2% to 22.9%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Spencer Torkelson's 14% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) ranks in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #24 group of hitters in the game since the start of last season by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Cooper Criswell's 88.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 2nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Rafael Devers's speed has improved this year. His 25.96 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.48 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 45 games (+8.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.88 vs Boston Red Sox 4.61

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