Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/4/2025

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

On May 4, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League West matchup. The Giants, boasting a strong 21-13 record this season, are in solid form and are coming off an impressive win against the Rockies yesterday. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling significantly this year with a dismal 6-27 record.

San Francisco is projected to start Logan Webb, who has established himself as an elite pitcher, currently ranked 5th in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Webb has delivered a stellar performance this season, with a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.83. His ability to strike out batters, with a rate of 29.9%, stands as a notable advantage against a Rockies lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts. Webb is also expected to pitch an average of 6.8 innings, allowing just 1.8 earned runs.

On the other side, the Rockies will send German Marquez to the mound. Unfortunately for Colorado, Marquez has had a nightmarish season, struggling with a Win/Loss record of 0-5 and an alarming ERA of 9.82. While his projections indicate he might pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs, these numbers still reflect a pitcher in dire need of improvement.

Offensively, the Giants rank 17th in MLB but face a Rockies defense that ranks 30th overall. With a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for the Giants and a low total of 2.65 runs for the Rockies, San Francisco appears poised to capitalize on their opponent's struggles. Given the current odds, the Giants are heavy favorites, making this matchup one that bettors will certainly want to keep an eye on.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

German Marquez's high utilization percentage of his fastball (58.2% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Kyle Farmer is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.30 Units / 68% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3, San Francisco Giants 4.72

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Logan Webb - Giants

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