Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction – 5/3/2025

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on May 3, 2025, they come off a dominant 4-0 victory in their last matchup, looking to secure a decisive series win. The Giants, standing at 20-13, are enjoying a strong season, while the Rockies have struggled significantly with a 6-26 record. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers, Jordan Hicks and Bradley Blalock, who are both grappling with challenging seasons.

Jordan Hicks, projected to start for the Giants, has had a mixed year. His 1-3 record and 6.12 ERA are concerning, but advanced metrics suggest he's been unlucky, as his 3.93 xFIP indicates he could improve moving forward. Hicks projects to go about 5.6 innings today, likely allowing around 1.9 earned runs, which would be a solid outing against the Rockies' struggling offense.

Conversely, Bradley Blalock has had a rough time with a 10.29 ERA and an unimpressive 0-1 record. Having only started one game this season, Blalock’s projection of 4.5 innings pitched isn't encouraging, and he may be exposed against a Giants lineup that, despite being ranked 19th in MLB offensively, still has the potential to capitalize on Blalock’s weaknesses.

The Rockies rank 29th in overall offense and dead last in batting average, making this a daunting task for them. They have also had difficulties with strikeouts, facing a pitcher like Hicks who can exploit their high-strikeout tendencies.

With the Giants as significant betting favorites at -285, the projections suggest a high implied total of 4.99 runs for San Francisco. The Rockies, on the other hand, are projected at just 3.01 runs. It’s a pivotal game for both teams as they head into the series finale, with the Giants aiming to build on their recent success while the Rockies desperately seek a turnaround.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Bradley Blalock's 2029.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 10th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Mickey Moniak generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies' bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Kyle Farmer has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.30 Units / 73% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.4, San Francisco Giants 4.75

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bradley Blalock - Rockies
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants

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