Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/11/2025

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on April 11, 2025, they find themselves in a prime position after a strong start to the season. The Padres sit at 10-3, showcasing one of the top offenses in MLB, ranking 1st in team batting average and 8th overall. In their last outing, the Padres beat the Athletics. They will look to continue their winning ways against the Rockies, who have struggled to a 3-9 record this season and are ranked 20th in overall offense.

On the mound, San Diego is projected to start Nick Pivetta, who has shown promise with a solid 2.70 ERA across two starts this year. However, his 3.98 xFIP raises concerns about sustainability, suggesting he may not maintain this excellent performance. Pivetta’s ability to limit earned runs (projected at 2.1 today) could be crucial against a Rockies offense that ranks 24th in home runs.

German Marquez will pitch for Colorado, presenting an interesting matchup. Although Marquez carries a commendable 2.45 ERA, his 4.76 xFIP indicates he has benefited from some good fortune. He could face challenges against a Padres lineup that strikes out less frequently than average, making it harder for Marquez to leverage his low strikeout rate.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, oddsmakers favor the Padres as significant betting favorites at -200. They project a team total of 4.06 runs, while the Rockies are expected to struggle, with a low implied team total of 2.94 runs. Given the recent trends and matchup dynamics, the Padres look to capitalize on their strong start and bounce back after their last defeat.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. German Marquez has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 61.6% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Kyle Farmer's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 90.3-mph average last season has decreased to 84.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Projected catcher Hunter Goodman projects as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres outfield defense grades out as the best out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Typically, bats like Brandon Lockridge who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as German Marquez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 80 away games (+0.80 Units / 1% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 36% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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