Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/16/2025

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On April 16, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium in the third game of their series. Following a decisive victory in yesterday's matchup, the Dodgers are looking to extend their strong start to the season, holding a record of 13-6. Conversely, the Rockies are struggling mightily with a 3-14 record, indicating a challenging season ahead.

The Dodgers will send Bobby Miller to the mound, a right-handed pitcher ranked as the 168th best starter in MLB, according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite his low ranking, Miller has been effective lately, projecting to allow an average of only 2.2 earned runs over 5.6 innings. However, he does have concerns, such as allowing 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks on average, which could open the door for the Rockies to capitalize.

German Marquez, also a right-hander, will take the ball for Colorado. Although Marquez has struggled with a 0-2 record this season, his xERA of 3.13 suggests that he has been unlucky, and he could improve as the season progresses. Still, he has a tendency to walk batters (10.5 BB%) and may find it difficult against a Dodgers offense that ranks 4th in the league in walks.

The Dodgers rank 9th in overall offense, bolstered by a powerful lineup that leads MLB with 32 home runs. In contrast, the Rockies sit at 25th in offensive rankings, with a dismal 29th ranking in home runs. This disparity in offensive firepower makes the Dodgers significant betting favorites, with a moneyline of -300 and an implied team total of 5.35 runs for the game.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

German Marquez is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in the majors — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Kyle Farmer's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.3-mph figure last year has fallen to 84.1-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Colorado Rockies batters collectively rank 10th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 8.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Bobby Miller has been unlucky since the start of last season, posting an 8.52 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.58 — a 3.94 deviation.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like German Marquez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Max Muncy pulls many of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Tommy Edman has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+19.20 Units / 213% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.63, Los Angeles Dodgers 5.47

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • German Marquez - Rockies
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers

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