Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Pick – 5/7/2025

On May 7, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Cleveland Guardians in what is shaping up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Nationals Park. The Nationals sit at 17-20 this season, struggling to find consistency and ranking 25th in bullpen performance according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Guardians are in good shape with a 21-15 record, showcasing a solid rotation and a reliable bullpen ranked 5th in MLB.

Yesterday, the Nationals fell short against the Guardians, continuing a trend that has left them looking for answers as they enter the third game of this series. The pitching matchup features Mike Soroka for Washington and Logan Allen for Cleveland. Soroka, although ranked 87th among starting pitchers, has an unfortunate 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 7.20 this year. However, there's a glimmer of hope in his 4.18 xFIP, suggesting he may be poised for better performances ahead. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing around 2.1 earned runs but with concerning numbers in walks and hits allowed.

Logan Allen, on the other hand, brings a mixed bag to the mound. With an ERA of 4.02 and a less favorable xFIP of 5.01, his luck may run out soon as the projections suggest he could be due for regression. He has started six games this season, securing a 1-2 record, and is expected to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs.

The Guardians offense, although ranking 22nd overall in MLB and struggling with a batting average of .240, has had moments of power, ranking 13th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Nationals have shown some offensive spark, ranking 15th in overall talent, though their batting average is also average at best. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, hinting at potential offensive fireworks.

With the Nationals sitting at +115 on the moneyline and an implied total of 4.24 runs, the betting markets indicate a closely contested game against the Guardians, who are favored at -135 with a higher implied total of 4.76 runs. This matchup will be crucial for both teams as they look to solidify their positions moving forward in the season.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Because groundball batters have a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Logan Allen and his 35.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in this game being matched up with 5 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Bo Naylor, Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Mike Soroka in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+5.35 Units / 36% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.62, Washington Nationals 4.44

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Mike Soroka - Nationals

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