Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Pick – 5/5/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals host the Cleveland Guardians on May 5, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup at Nationals Park. The Nationals, currently sitting at 16-19, are having a below-average season, while the Guardians have emerged with a strong 20-14 record, showcasing their competitiveness this year.

In their previous outing, the Guardians won 5-4 over the Toronto Blue Jays. Their offensive prowess will be tested against Nationals pitcher Jake Irvin, who has struggled despite a decent ERA of 4.01. Irvin, ranked 212th among starting pitchers, projects to pitch around 5.6 innings today but is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs, indicating potential vulnerability.

Luis Ortiz will take the mound for the Guardians, also a right-handed pitcher but with a below-average reputation this season. Ortiz has a 4.78 ERA, but projections suggest he might outperform his numbers today, as he is expected to allow 2.7 earned runs over approximately 5.5 innings.

The Nationals' offense ranks 16th overall, which is considered average, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 8th in the league. Conversely, the Guardians find themselves struggling offensively, ranking 22nd in the league, particularly in batting average.

With the game total currently set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate it will be closely contested. The Nationals have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Guardians are projected at 4.55 runs. Given the Guardians' recent success and the Nationals' pitching concerns, this matchup could lean in favor of Cleveland.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Luis L. Ortiz's 95.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 87th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball hitters like Jose Ramirez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Irvin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Given that flyball hitters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Jake Irvin and his 42.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in today's outing facing 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Josh Bell has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 67% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.91, Washington Nationals 4.28

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Guardians
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.