Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 4/20/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cleveland Guardians on April 20, 2025, both teams come into this matchup looking to build momentum. The Guardians, who recently secured a convincing 3-0 victory over the Pirates yesterday, are in the midst of a solid season with an 11-9 record, while the Pirates are struggling at 8-14, making this series crucial for their morale.

Mitch Keller is set to take the mound for the Pirates, projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow approximately 2.9 earned runs. While Keller’s ERA stands at a respectable 4.30, his 5.77 xERA indicates he may have been fortunate in his performances thus far and could be due for a downturn. His last start on April 15 was uneventful, where he allowed 3 earned runs over 6 innings, and he has not been able to find consistent success this season, evidenced by his 1-2 record.

For the Guardians, Logan Allen is projected to pitch 5.1 innings with an impressive 2.30 ERA. Allen's recent form has been strong, having gone 6 innings with no earned runs in his last outing on April 15. This season, he has shown potential despite being one of the low-strikeout pitchers in the league. With the Pirates’ offense ranking 28th overall, they could struggle against Allen’s left-handed approach, particularly given their high strikeout rate.

In the context of betting, both teams have their moneylines set at -110, suggesting a close game. However, with the Guardians’ superior recent form and Keller’s inconsistencies, the projections lean in favor of Cleveland, making them a team to watch as they aim to capitalize on their current momentum.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nolan Jones is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Bo Naylor projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Bryan Reynolds has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.6 mph compared to last year's 94.1 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 42% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.79, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.44

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Allen - Guardians
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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