Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 3/29/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians on March 29, 2025, both teams are looking to establish their early-season identities. The Royals are off to a rocky start with a record of 0-1, while the Guardians sit at 1-0 after a solid opening day. This matchup marks the second game of the series, adding a layer of intensity as both teams look to gain momentum.

Seth Lugo takes the mound for the Royals, projected to pitch 5.3 innings with an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed. While Lugo ranks as the 105th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating an average performance, his projections suggest he may struggle with hits and walks, allowing 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks on average. This could be a concern against a Guardians lineup that is looking to capitalize on any pitching weaknesses.

On the other side, Gavin Williams is set to start for the Guardians, with projections indicating he will pitch 4.8 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs. Williams ranks 82nd among MLB pitchers, showcasing his above-average potential. However, his own projections reveal challenges, including allowing 4.5 hits and 1.8 walks, which could give the Royals opportunities to score.

The betting lines indicate a close contest, with the Royals favored at -120 and an implied team total of 4.35 runs, suggesting they may have the edge at home. The Guardians, with an implied total of 4.15 runs, are also in striking distance. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup could be a high-scoring affair, especially if both pitchers struggle to find their rhythm.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will be at a disadvantage batting from his bad side today against Seth Lugo

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average pitcher, Seth Lugo has been granted an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an extra 5.3 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 99 games (+15.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gavin Williams has hit the Walks Allowed Over in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians
  • Seth Lugo - Royals

Betting Odds

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