Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/17/2025

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

On April 17, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Cleveland Guardians at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in what is set to be an engaging matchup between two teams looking to establish some momentum. The Orioles, currently struggling with a 7-10 record, are hoping to turn their season around, while the Guardians, with a more respectable 9-8, are performing above average. In their last meeting, the Orioles crushed the Guardians by a score of 9-1 on Wednesday.

The pitching matchup features the Orioles' Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had an inconsistent start to the season with a Power Rankings position of 290th among starting pitchers, indicating he is among the lower tier in MLB. Sugano has a 1-1 record and a decent ERA of 3.86, but his 5.57 xFIP suggests he might have enjoyed a bit of luck thus far. In contrast, the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee, who ranks 75th among pitchers. Bibee also holds a 1-1 record, with an average ERA of 4.40 and a higher xFIP of 5.33, hinting that he too might be due for some regression.

With the projections favoring the Guardians slightly in this matchup, bettors may find the Orioles, despite their current struggles, a compelling option as they look to level the series. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a close contest is anticipated.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's 2194-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a sizeable 167-rpm decrease from last season's 2361-rpm figure.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Typically, batters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tomoyuki Sugano.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen profiles as the best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Considering that flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball hitters, Tomoyoki Sugano and his 33.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this matchup squaring off against 3 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tyler O'Neill has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jordan Westburg has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.4, Baltimore Orioles 4.42

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.