Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/16/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -195, Mariners -1.5 165
• Money Line: Reds 115, Mariners -135
• Total (Over/Under):7 -110

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 45%
• Seattle Mariners - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 43.28%
• Seattle Mariners - 56.72%

Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on April 16, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 7-10 this season, are having a tough time, while the Reds, with a record of 9-7, are enjoying a good season.

The Mariners will be the home team, looking to capitalize on their last victory against the Reds. In their previous game, the Mariners emerged victorious with a score of 9-3. They were favored to win with a closing Moneyline price of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%. Mitch Haniger has been the Mariners' standout hitter this season, contributing 9 runs, 11 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .286 and an OPS of .875.

On the mound for the Mariners, Logan Gilbert is projected to start. Gilbert, a right-handed pitcher, has had an excellent season so far, with an ERA of 2.66. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 3.58 xERA and 3.98 FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Gilbert is known for his ability to strike out batters, averaging 6.9 strikeouts per game, but he has struggled with allowing hits and walks.

The Reds, on the other hand, are looking to bounce back from their loss against the Mariners. In their last game, they fell 9-3, with a closing Moneyline price of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. Spencer Steer has been the Reds' top performer this season, recording 12 runs, 18 RBIs, and 3 home runs, along with 3 stolen bases. Steer boasts an impressive batting average of .321 and an OPS of 1.074.

Taking the mound for the Reds is Hunter Greene, another right-handed pitcher. Greene has had a mixed season, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.86. However, his 3.96 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward. Greene is a strikeout specialist, averaging 7.8 strikeouts per game, but he has struggled with hits and walks.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. The Mariners have a struggling offense, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Reds boast a solid offense, ranking 9th in the league. However, the Mariners' bullpen ranks 26th, while the Reds' bullpen ranks 21st according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Mariners as the favorite for today's game with a win probability of 57%. The Reds, on the other hand, are considered the underdogs with a win probability of 43%. Based on the current odds, the Mariners have a low implied team total of 3.70 runs, while the Reds have a very low implied team total of 3.30 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Greene in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 2001.2-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 3rd percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.13 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 60 away games (+20.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Mitch Garver has not hit the RBIs Over in any of his last 7 games (-7.00 Units / -100% ROI)

Reds vs Mariners Prediction: Reds 3.38 - Mariners 3.65

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