Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 4/3/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on April 3, 2025, both teams come into this matchup struggling with identical 2-4 records. This National League Central clash marks the first game of the series, and both squads hope to turn their seasons around. Interestingly, the Brewers' Nestor Cortes will be looking to bounce back from a rough start, having posted a 36.00 ERA this year, while Nick Lodolo of the Reds has made a more promising start with an impressive 3.00 ERA.

Cortes stands out as a high-walk pitcher, with a staggering 29.4% walk rate this season, which could present an opportunity for the Reds' hitters. However, the Reds have been one of the least patient offenses, ranking 2nd least in walks, potentially negating Cortes's control issues.

As for Lodolo, he faces a Brewers lineup that has struck out at alarming rates, ranking 2nd in the league for strikeouts. This matchup could favor Lodolo, as his low strikeout rate might not be as much of a liability against such a swing-happy lineup.

With a total set at 7.5 runs, this game is anticipated to be tightly contested. The Brewers are currently favored with a moneyline of -115, reflecting a narrow edge in the betting market. As always, the outcomes of these early-season games can shape the narrative for both teams moving forward.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his last game started, Nick Lodolo wasn't on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to post 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Austin Wynns is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Nestor Cortes to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Jackson Chourio's footspeed has declined this year. His 29.71 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.38 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Milwaukee Brewers hitters collectively grade out 22nd- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when using their 7.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 80 games at home (+6.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 79 of their last 135 games (+15.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+4.15 Units / 83% ROI)

• Date: April 3, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds
  • Nestor Cortes - Brewers

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