Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 4/5/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on April 5, 2025, at American Family Field, both teams find themselves struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Brewers sit at .500 with a record of 4-4, while the Reds are languishing with a 2-6 mark, indicating a rough start. In their last outing, the Brewers managed to secure a narrow victory against the Reds, which may provide some momentum heading into this matchup.

On the mound, Milwaukee is projected to start Elvin Rodriguez, who has struggled with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and a troubling ERA of 9.00 this season. However, his xFIP of 6.17 suggests he might have been a bit unlucky and could improve with better fortune. Rodriguez is a low-walk pitcher, facing a Reds offense that has been among the least patient in the league, which could work in his favor.

Conversely, Cincinnati will send out Brady Singer, who has been exceptional so far, boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 1-0. While his xFIP of 3.27 indicates he might not maintain this level of performance, he has shown the ability to handle pressure, particularly against a Brewers lineup that ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts. This matchup could tilt in Singer's favor, especially given the Brewers' offensive struggles, as they rank 33rd in MLB.

The projections suggest that both teams will average around 4.00 runs, making this a close contest. Given the Brewers' slight edge in the bullpen rankings (18th vs. 23rd for the Reds), they may have the upper hand in late-game situations. Bettors should keep an eye on how Rodriguez performs against a Reds lineup that hasn't found its rhythm yet.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Brady Singer is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.8% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in American Family Field — the #10 HR venue among all parks — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Matt McLain has strong power (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Elvin Rodriguez is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for McLain.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

In today's game, Jeimer Candelario is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Elvin Rodriguez in the 25th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

This year, there has been a decline in Jackson Chourio's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.71 ft/sec last year to 28.72 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 152 games (+12.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Brice Turang has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+21.00 Units / 300% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • Elvin Rodriguez - Brewers

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