Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/6/2025

On May 6, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park for the second game of their series. The Braves, currently sitting at 16-18, are struggling this season and looking to turn things around against the Reds, who have a record of 18-18 and are performing at an average level. In their last outing, the Braves managed a win, a much-needed boost for a team that has been underwhelming this year.

The matchup on the mound features Chris Sale for the Braves and Andrew Abbott for the Reds. Sale, despite being ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a rough start to the season with a 1-3 record and an ERA of 4.84. However, his 3.25 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and is poised for better results. Sale projects to pitch approximately 5.9 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs with an impressive strikeout rate of 7.5 batters per game.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott is coming off a strong start with a 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.84. However, his underlying metrics indicate he may not be as effective moving forward, as his 4.48 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit fortunate. Abbott is projected to pitch 5.0 innings but is expected to allow a troubling 3.1 earned runs.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, while the Reds are slightly better at 12th. The Braves have a high implied team total of 4.72 runs, while the Reds sit at a low 3.28 runs. With the betting odds favoring the Braves significantly, they will look to capitalize on their home field advantage and get back on track in this important matchup.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Among every team today, the worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Santiago Espinal's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.1-mph EV last season has lowered to 84.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, batters like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

As a team, Atlanta Braves hitters have done poorly in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 4th-worst in the league.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+3.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.87, Atlanta Braves 5.16

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Chris Sale - Braves

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