Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/5/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On May 5, 2025, the Atlanta Braves will host the Cincinnati Reds at Truist Park for the first game of their series. Both teams are currently hovering around the .500 mark, with the Braves at 15-18 and the Reds at 18-17. The Braves have struggled this season, showcasing a below-average record, while the Reds have managed to maintain an average standing.

The Braves' AJ Smith-Shawver will take the mound, looking to improve his 1-2 record and 4.26 ERA this season. While his advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, projecting him to allow 2.2 earned runs over 4.2 innings, he faces a tough challenge against a solid Reds lineup. Smith-Shawver ranks as the 233rd best starting pitcher in MLB, a position that indicates he has struggled to find his rhythm.

On the other hand, the Reds will counter with Brady Singer, who boasts a much more impressive 4-1 record and a stellar 3.24 ERA. Singer's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. His ranking as the 79th best starting pitcher showcases his above-average performance this season.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in the league, while the Reds sit at 10th. The Reds have the edge in batting average, ranking 9th. Despite being favored with a moneyline of -145, the Braves will need to capitalize on their home-field advantage and leverage their offense if they hope to outperform expectations against a Reds team that has shown potential this season. The Game Total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Brady Singer will record an average of 16.8 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts AJ Smith-Shawver in the 77th percentile among all starters in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Matt Olson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 5th-best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.69, Atlanta Braves 4.59

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brady Singer - Reds
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.