Cincinnati Reds at Texas Rangers Best Bet – 4/28/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 28, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -185, Rangers -1.5 160
• Money Line: Reds 110, Rangers -130
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 46%
• Texas Rangers - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 45.69%
• Texas Rangers - 54.31%

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 28, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Globe Life Field. The Rangers are the home team for this interleague matchup. The game is expected to be a close one, with the Rangers holding a record of 14-14 and the Reds having a slightly better season at 15-12.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning, who has been having an average season. Dunning has started five games this year, boasting a win-loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.61, which is considered average. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his xERA and FIP, suggest that he may have been lucky so far and could potentially perform worse going forward.

Opposing Dunning on the mound will be left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has been having an excellent season with an ERA of 2.60. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate in his performance and could regress in the future.

The Rangers have a solid offense this season, ranking as the 10th best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking second in the league, and team home runs, ranking fifth. However, they struggle with stolen bases, ranking 25th. On the other hand, the Reds have a less impressive offense, ranking 20th overall. They have an average team batting average and home run ranking, but excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Rangers are favored to win with a moneyline of -130, giving them a 54% implied win probability. The Reds, with a moneyline of +110, have a 46% implied win probability.

When analyzing the pitching matchup, it's worth noting that Dunning is a high-walk pitcher facing a Reds offense that ranks sixth in the league in walks. This may give the Reds an advantage, as they have a patient approach at the plate. Meanwhile, Abbott is a high-flyball pitcher facing a powerful Rangers offense that ranks fifth in home runs. The Rangers' power could potentially lead to home runs against Abbott.

Overall, this game promises to be a competitive showdown between two teams with different strengths. The Rangers' offense and Dunning's performance will be key factors, while the Reds' patient approach and Abbott's ability to limit home runs will play a crucial role. With both teams having similar win probabilities, it's shaping up to be an exciting matchup for both fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nick Martini is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Dane Dunning's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (64.1% since the start of last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, batters like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andrew Abbott.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's matchup, Wyatt Langford is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (97th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 81 of their last 150 games (+18.83 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+15.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Reds vs Rangers Prediction: Reds 4.62 - Rangers 4.79

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