Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 5/6/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mike Clevinger - White Sox
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Chicago White Sox on May 6, 2024, at Tropicana Field. As the home team, the Rays will aim to continue their average season, holding a record of 17-18. Meanwhile, the White Sox have struggled with a record of 8-26, making this a matchup between a team having an average season and one having a terrible season.

The Rays are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Alexander, who has had a mixed performance this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Alexander ranks as the #247 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mike Clevinger, who is considered a bad pitcher by MLB standards.

In their last game, the Rays faced the New York Mets and secured a narrow victory with a score of 7-6. The White Sox, in their previous game against the St. Louis Cardinals, won convincingly with a score of 5-1. These results indicate that both teams are coming off wins, with the Rays being slight favorites in their last game and the White Sox being underdogs.

Looking at the offensive performance, the Rays rank as the #21 best team in MLB this season, while the White Sox sit at the bottom as the #30 team. However, the Rays have a higher team batting average, ranking #9, and excel in home runs and stolen bases, ranking #4 and #2 respectively. The White Sox struggle in these categories, ranking #22 in both batting average and home runs, and #22 in stolen bases.

Taking into account the projections, the Rays have an average implied team total of 4.24 runs, while the White Sox have a low implied team total of 3.26 runs. This suggests that the Rays have a better chance of scoring more runs in this game.

In terms of the pitching matchup, Tyler Alexander is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings on average, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and allowing 5.2 hits and 1.3 walks. Mike Clevinger, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and allowing 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks.

With a current moneyline of -175, the Rays are the clear betting favorites, with an implied win probability of 62%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Considering the matchup and the current odds, the Rays have a favorable position to win this game. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the White Sox will be looking to defy the odds and turn their season around. It will be an intriguing game to watch as these teams face off for the first time in the series.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 6 bats who share his handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Mike Clevinger figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Chicago White Sox projected lineup profiles as the weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tyler Alexander's 88.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 1st percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 56 games at home (+13.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 108 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 28 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.06 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.52

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