Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 4/22/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Chicago White Sox at Target Field in what promises to be an intriguing American League Central matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 7-15 and the White Sox at 5-17. The Twins' pitching staff is expected to be led by Bailey Ober, who has had a rocky start with a 6.16 ERA, but his 4.48 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve. In contrast, Davis Martin will take the mound for the White Sox, having compiled a 4.84 ERA, but his peripheral stats indicate he might be due for a downturn.

The Twins' offense ranks 27th in MLB, while the White Sox sit at the bottom of the league, ranking 30th. This matchup leans heavily in favor of the Twins, especially considering their bullpen ranks 9th, compared to the White Sox, who are 28th. With the Twins projected to score an impressive 5.10 runs based on current odds, they have a significant advantage over the White Sox's lowly projected total of 3.40 runs.

Given these factors, the Twins are favored to win this opening game of the series, making it a crucial opportunity for them to capitalize on the White Sox's struggles and improve their standing in the division.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Davis Martin has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.8% less often this year (65.9%) than he did last season (71.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Miguel Vargas has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's 90.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.6-mph decrease from last season's 91.7-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Trevor Larnach's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 93.2-mph figure last year has dropped to 85.6-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.55 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 13% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.04, Minnesota Twins 5.32

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

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