White Sox vs Astros Series Preview & Predictions: Who Will Advance to the ALDS?
Updated September 28, 2026
Updated September 28, 2026
The Chicago White Sox enter the American League Wild Card round as one of the season’s biggest surprises, while the Houston Astros arrive after a turbulent season of their own. Chicago finished 84-78 with a +56 run differential and an 87-75 expected record based on runs scored and allowed. Houston won the AL West at 81-81 despite a -32 run differential and a 78-84 expected record. The Astros do own home field for the entire best-of-3 series, and they took 5 of 7 regular-season meetings from Chicago, but this is expected to be a competitive series.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Houston’s division title and 5-2 head-to-head record are easy to price heavily, but Chicago was the better team across 162 games by record, run differential, expected record, and total run production. The White Sox also have a strong late-inning arm in Grant Taylor, while Houston’s rotation enters the series without having time to reset for the postseason.”
Pricing Edge to Chicago
Polymarket currently prices Chicago at 44% to reach the ALDS, with the displayed Yes price at 46¢. Houston sits at 58%, with a 59¢ Yes price. The Chicago side has very little volume, so the displayed percentage and executable price are not identical, but either figure leaves room against our model estimate. At a 46¢ entry, the model edge is 5%. At 48¢, that falls to 3%, which is the highest price I would consider before the value becomes too thin.
Body Of Work Evaluation
The case for Chicago starts with the gap between the teams’ actual quality over the full season. The White Sox scored 776 runs and allowed 720. Houston scored 734 and allowed 766. Chicago’s expected record was 87-75, while Houston’s was 78-84. That gap is large enough to offset much of the home-field advantage, especially because Houston went only 39-42 at home. The concern for the White Sox is clear: Houston won 5 of 7 meetings between these teams this season and held Chicago to 5 runs or fewer in 6 of those games. Still, a short series market can lean too far on the direct season series when the overall body of work points the other way.
Recommended Position:
White Sox to Advance
Current Price:
46¢
Model Probability:
51%
Market Probability:
46%
Model Edge:
5%
Entry Threshold:
48¢
Model Confidence:
77/100
Chicago’s offense carried the club for much of the season. Miguel Vargas finished with 33 home runs, 31 doubles, 22 stolen bases, 101 walks, 93 RBIs, and 106 runs. Rookie Munetaka Murakami hit 35 home runs, giving the White Sox 2 middle-order bats capable of changing a game with one swing. Chicago finished the regular season with 776 runs, 42 more than Houston.
There is swing-and-miss risk in this lineup. Colson Montgomery finished at .197 and set a major-league single-season record with 227 strikeouts. That matters against Houston arms that can get strikeouts late in counts. Chicago does not need constant traffic on the bases, though. Its power and walk rate create scoring chances even when their batting average is modest.
Any MLB predictions centered around a Chicago pick have to account for Yordan Alvarez. He won the AL batting title and finished at .316/.432/.601 with 42 home runs, 106 RBIs, 105 runs, and 109 walks. Jeremy Peña also closed the regular season well, batting .353 with a .706 slugging percentage and 5 home runs over Houston’s final 12 games. Christian Walker posted a 1.167 OPS with 4 home runs in his final 8 games, while rookie Lucas Spence hit 4 home runs in the final 4 games.
That group gives Houston a high offensive ceiling even after a season in which the club was outscored by 32 runs. Chicago’s pitchers cannot give Alvarez extra baserunners through walks, especially with Peña and Walker entering October in strong form.
The clubs had not formally announced every starter as of Monday morning, and both used key arms during the final weekend. The most likely setup based on rest and MLB’s latest team reporting is:
Chicago used Sean Burke, Davis Martin, and Anthony Kay against Colorado over the final weekend. MLB reported that the best Game 1 estimate was an opener with Erick Fedde following, then Burke in Game 2 and Martin later if needed. Houston also emptied its rotation during the final series against the Athletics, leaving a bullpen game as the leading Game 1 possibility. Hunter Brown returning on 3 days' rest for Tuesday was viewed as unlikely.
Burke is the arm that can swing the series for Chicago. He finished 11-7 with a 3.34 ERA, 185 strikeouts in 172.1 innings, a 25.8% strikeout rate, and a 3.62 FIP. Martin finished at 9-8 with a 3.95 ERA in 146 innings. Fedde closed the year with a 3.83 ERA and gives Chicago a useful length option behind an opener.
Houston’s best healthy options have quality as well. Brown finished with a 3.19 ERA over 107.1 innings, while Peter Lambert logged a 3.87 ERA across 153.2 innings. Wesneski returned from the injured list in late July and produced a 3.70 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over 48.2 innings. He also threw 7 scoreless innings against Chicago on September 2.
Chicago has one of the more flexible late-inning pieces in Grant Taylor. He finished with a 2.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 106 strikeouts in 84 innings. The White Sox can use him for more than 3 outs if the middle of Houston’s order comes up in the 7th or 8th inning. Rookie Hagen Smith also gave Chicago another high-strikeout option late in the year.
Houston’s answer is Josh Hader, who ended the season with a 1.01 ERA and converted all 26 of his save chances. Bryan Abreu remains a key bridge arm, and Houston’s bullpen should be rested after Hayden Wesneski worked 7 innings Saturday and the Astros won Sunday’s finale 9-0. That rest advantage is especially useful if Houston goes with a bullpen-heavy plan in Game 1.
Chicago second baseman Chase Meidroth has dealt with left hamstring discomfort and missed most of the final weekend, but he is expected to be available. Houston third baseman Isaac Paredes fouled a ball off his knee Saturday, then returned to the lineup Sunday. The bigger losses for Houston are in center field: Daulton Varsho is out with a wrist injury, and Brice Matthews is out with a knee injury. Neither is expected to be available for the Wild Card round.
Chicago is the side I prefer at the current Polymarket price. Houston has the home games, the better head-to-head record, Alvarez, and a strong back end of the bullpen. Those are legitimate reasons the Astros are favored. The White Sox, however, were 3 games better in the standings, 88 runs better in run differential, and 9 wins better by expected record. Their offense also scored 42 more runs over the full season.
The gap is not wide enough to call Chicago a heavy favorite. My projection lands at 51%, which makes the White Sox a small true-probability favorite but a larger value play against a 44% market reading. With Burke available for Game 2 and Taylor capable of covering the highest-leverage outs, Chicago has enough pitching to support their stronger season-long offense. My recommended position is Chicago to advance to the ALDS at 48¢ or lower, with the current 46¢ price still inside that range.
