Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 4/4/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

On April 4, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two struggling teams. Both clubs enter this game with identical 2-4 records, and neither is making a strong case for contention early in the season. The Tigers are projected to start Jack Flaherty, who boasts a solid 3.18 ERA, while the White Sox will counter with Jonathan Cannon, who is still looking to prove himself after a shaky start.

Flaherty is currently ranked as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, which indicates he has been performing well relative to his peers. Despite his impressive ERA, Flaherty's 4.16 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far, but he projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings while allowing just 1.8 earned runs today—an elite average. His ability to strike out 7.3 batters per game adds to his appeal, even if he is projected to allow a concerning 4.2 hits and 1.7 walks.

Cannon, on the other hand, has a perfect 0.00 ERA, but his 3.66 xFIP raises red flags about sustainability. He is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which is above average, but his strikeout rate of only 4.6 batters per game is below par. Additionally, Cannon is likely to give up 4.7 hits and 2.0 walks, which could spell trouble against a Tigers offense that, while ranked 19th in MLB, has shown some signs of life recently.

With the Tigers boasting the 5th best bullpen in MLB, compared to the White Sox's 29th rank, Detroit appears to have the edge in this matchup. The Tigers are currently favored with a moneyline of -235, and the projected game total is a low 7.0 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty projects as the 20th-best SP in MLB right now as it relates to his strikeout ability, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Typically, batters like Spencer Torkelson who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jonathan Cannon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games (+20.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 away games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.50 Units / 158% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

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