Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 4/9/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field on April 9, 2025, both teams are struggling this season and are looking to turn things around. The Guardians hold a 4-6 record, while the White Sox sit at 2-8, with both teams desperately seeking momentum. In their last matchup, the Guardians won 1-0 over the White Sox, a result that only added to the White Sox's frustrations.

On the mound, Cleveland's Logan Allen is projected to start, but he has had a rough start to the year, sporting a 0-1 record and a troubling 6.75 ERA. Projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings while allowing about 2.5 earned runs but with an alarming 5.1 hits and 2.1 walks on average. The White Sox’s Sean Burke counters with a 1-1 record and a 5.23 ERA, aiming to improve a shaky start after struggling through two games this season. Burke is set to pitch an average of 4.8 innings, allowing about 2.4 earned runs, though his projections also indicate significant challenges with 4.2 hits and 2.3 walks expected.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 15th in MLB despite their subpar batting average of 21st, producing slightly better power with the 8th most home runs. The White Sox, however, have underperformed, sitting at 25th in MLB and struggling in nearly every offensive category. With Cleveland boasting a top-tier bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, they have the edge late in games, especially given the White Sox's 30th ranked bullpen.

Given the Guardians' favorable matchup against a struggling White Sox lineup, they are positioned as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -185, reflecting a strong implied team total of 4.28 runs. This matchup could provide the Guardians a much-needed chance to capitalize on their offensive advantages.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Sean Burke (36.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Austin Slater is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Korey Lee, the White Sox's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

With 9 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Logan Allen will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Steven Kwan's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 18.5% to 24%.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 76 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 42 away games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.15 Units / 83% ROI)

• Date: April 9, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sean Burke - White Sox
  • Logan Allen - Guardians

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