Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 4/8/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on April 8, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season. The Guardians sit at 3-6, while the White Sox are slightly worse off at 2-7. This American League Central matchup features two clubs that are not living up to expectations, particularly with their offenses.

The Guardians will send Ben Lively to the mound, who has had a rough start to the year with an 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 6.75. However, projections indicate that he may have been unlucky thus far, and he could perform better moving forward. On the other side, the White Sox will counter with Shane Smith, who has a solid ERA of 3.18 but is projected to regress due to a higher xFIP of 5.40. Smith's tendency to induce ground balls could play into the Guardians' strengths, as they have demonstrated some power with 13 home runs, ranking 6th in MLB. Nevertheless, their overall offensive struggles could hinder their ability to capitalize on Smith's weaknesses.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Guardians favored at -200, bettors might find value in Cleveland's strong bullpen, which ranks 3rd in MLB, compared to the White Sox's last-place bullpen. Despite both teams' current woes, the Guardians' home field advantage and superior pitching depth could lead them to a much-needed victory in this early-season series opener.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Shane Smith will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Thaiss has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kyle Manzardo has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last season's 92-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+14.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 away games (+9.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+5.60 Units / 93% ROI)

• Date: April 8, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Smith - White Sox
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

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