Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/19/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 19, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Chicago White Sox at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Red Sox are currently sitting at 11-10, enjoying an above-average start to the season, while the White Sox find themselves struggling significantly with a dismal record of 4-15. Boston's elite starting pitcher Garrett Crochet, ranked 9th overall in MLB, comes into this matchup with a solid 2-1 record and a stellar ERA of 1.38. This follows a strong performance in his previous outing, where he struck out 11 of these same White Sox in 7.1 innings of work.

In contrast, Shane Smith will take the mound for Chicago. Although his ERA of 2.04 looks respectable, the projections indicate he’s been fortunate, as his xFIP sits at 4.22, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Smith has only started three games this season and is still seeking his first win.

The Red Sox offense ranks 17th in MLB, showcasing an average performance overall, but they shine in batting average (10th) and stolen bases (4th). However, they have room for improvement in home runs, ranking 20th. Meanwhile, Chicago's offense ranks dead last at 30th across the board, indicating severe challenges they face when trying to score runs.

With Boston favored heavily in the betting market and an implied team total of 5.38 runs, they are set to capitalize on Chicago’s vulnerable lineup. The White Sox's struggles, combined with Crochet's recent success and the Red Sox's potent offense, may signal a very favorable outcome for Boston in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Over his previous 3 GS, Shane Smith has posted a stellar ERA of 2.04.

• A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Chase Meidroth has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Throwing 99.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Garrett Crochet places in the 99th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jarren Duran has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year's 90.7-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+2.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.07, Boston Red Sox 6.02

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Smith - White Sox
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

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