Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 4/18/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox travel to Fenway Park to face the Boston Red Sox on April 18, 2025, both teams are looking to find some momentum in a matchup that features a struggling White Sox squad. Currently, the White Sox sit at the bottom of the American League standings with a dismal record of 4-14, while the Red Sox are hovering around the .500 mark at 10-10.

Projected starters for this clash include right-handed pitcher Hunter Dobbins for the Red Sox and left-handed Martin Perez for the White Sox. Dobbins has made only one start this season but has a solid ERA of 3.60, and his projections suggest he might be due for an uptick in performance given his favorable FIP of 2.82. Conversely, Martin Perez has had a strong start, posting an impressive ERA of 1.59, but his xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune thus far.

From an offensive perspective, the Red Sox rank 14th in MLB, while the White Sox are struggling at 30th. Boston's lineup has been consistently dangerous, and their strong showing in the past week with key hitters stepping up should give them confidence. The projections certainly favor the Red Sox, who have an implied team total of 5.28 runs compared to the White Sox's 3.72.

With the Red Sox's bullpen ranked 7th in MLB, they are positioned to hold late leads effectively, especially against a White Sox offense that has struggled mightily. As this matchup unfolds, bettors should take note of the potential for a Boston victory, given the stark contrast in team performance this season.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Martin Perez is projected to average 2.95 earned runs in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nick Maton usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Dobbins.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect better results for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Dobbins in the 19th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Rafael Devers has made big gains with his Barrel%, improving his 13.1% rate last season to 18.8% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.56, Boston Red Sox 5.08

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - White Sox
  • Hunter Dobbins - Red Sox

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