Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 4/21/2025

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox will play host to the Chicago White Sox on April 21, 2025, in what has become a lopsided matchup as the two teams face off for the fourth game in their series. Boston holds a record of 12-11 this season, showing signs of an above-average performance, while Chicago struggles at 5-16, firmly placing them at the bottom of the standings. The Red Sox offense has ranked 11th in the league, bolstered by a solid lineup that has proven capable of generating runs. In contrast, the White Sox offense sits at the 30th spot, showcasing their struggles at the plate.

Walker Buehler is set to take the mound for the Red Sox, coming off a strong performance where he demonstrated flashes of brilliance despite an ERA of 5.23. With a 2-1 record and a projection to average 5.6 innings today while allowing just 2.2 earned runs, Buehler could capitalize on a White Sox offense that ranks poorly in multiple categories, including batting average and home runs. Meanwhile, Jonathan Cannon, who has struggled this season with an average ERA of 4.42 and a concerning 13.1% walk rate, will look to find some consistency for the White Sox.

Given that Boston's bullpen is ranked 7th in the league, the Red Sox have a significant advantage in pitching depth as well. Cannon's inefficiency at limiting walks will likely play a crucial role in determining the game's outcome, especially against a patient Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in walks.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs and Boston being a substantial favorite with a moneyline of -295, bettors may find value in leaning towards the Red Sox to secure a victory, especially considering Chicago's current form and offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Jonathan Cannon (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Boston's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Miguel Vargas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler has used his change-up 5.1% more often this season (10.3%) than he did last year (5.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In comparison to his 93.1-mph average last year, Rafael Devers's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 95.8 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.04, Boston Red Sox 4.92

• Date: April 21, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox

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