Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/12/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Aaron Civale - Rays

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago Cubs, both sitting at 32-35, are set to face off on June 12, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series at Tropicana Field. The Rays, who have struggled offensively this season, will look to bounce back at home. Their offense ranks 24th in MLB, with a particularly dismal ranking of 30th in home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 6th. Similarly, the Cubs have had their share of offensive woes, ranking 26th in batting average and 20th overall, though they sit at an average 19th in home runs and 12th in stolen bases.

On the mound, Tampa Bay is projected to start Aaron Civale, a right-hander who has had a rough year with a 5.51 ERA but a more promising 3.82 xFIP, suggesting he's been unlucky and could improve. Civale has a 2-5 record over 13 starts and is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs on average, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. He also projects to strike out 5.6 batters but may struggle with control, allowing 4.7 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

Chicago counters with Javier Assad, who has been more effective with a 2.74 ERA but a concerning 3.98 xFIP, indicating he might regress. Assad holds a 4-2 record in 13 starts and is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs. He projects to strike out fewer batters (4.5) and also has poor control metrics, with 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks allowed on average.

The Rays' bullpen, ranked 13th in Power Rankings, could provide a slight edge over the Cubs' 16th-ranked bullpen. Yandy Diaz has been the Rays' standout hitter over the last week, batting .360 with 9 hits in 6 games. Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson has been on fire for the Cubs, hitting .391 with 9 hits and a home run in the same span.

The betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Rays' moneyline set at -120, implying a 52% win probability, and the Cubs at +100, implying a 48% win probability. With both teams underperforming this season, this matchup could hinge on whether Civale can capitalize on his underlying metrics and if the Rays' offense can find some much-needed power.

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.11 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.18

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