Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Preview – 4/12/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -205, Mariners -1.5 175
• Money Line: Cubs 100, Mariners -120
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 48%
• Seattle Mariners - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 44.34%
• Seattle Mariners - 55.66%

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

On April 12, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will take on the Chicago Cubs at T-Mobile Park in a highly anticipated Interleague matchup. The Mariners, with a disappointing 5-8 record this season, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the Cubs, who are enjoying a great season with a 7-5 record.

The Mariners will have the home-field advantage in this game, hoping that the support of their fans will give them the boost they need. The Cubs, on the other hand, will be aiming to spoil the Mariners' homecoming.

Bryce Miller is projected to start on the mound for the Mariners. As a right-handed pitcher, Miller has shown promise with a solid 3.00 ERA this year. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings consider him below average compared to other pitchers in MLB. His expected ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching suggest that he may have been lucky this year and could see a decline in performance going forward.

Opposing Miller will be Jordan Wicks, a left-handed pitcher for the Cubs. Wicks has shown average performance this season, with a 4.15 ERA. However, his Expected Fielding Independent Pitching indicates that he may have been unlucky, suggesting the potential for improvement in future outings.

The Mariners' offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. They have a below-average team batting average and rank 18th in home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Cubs boast the 6th best offense in MLB, with a strong team batting average and ranking 12th in home runs and 6th in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Mariners rank 26th in MLB, while the Cubs rank 13th. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, as both teams rely on their relief pitchers to close out games.

Looking at the projections, Miller is expected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, while striking out 5.7 batters. However, he is projected to struggle with allowing hits and walks. On the other side, Wicks is projected to pitch an average of 4.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters. He, too, is expected to struggle with hits and walks.

The betting markets anticipate a close game, with the Mariners favored at -120 and the Cubs at +100. The implied win probability for the Mariners is 52%, while the Cubs have a 48% chance of winning.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs, while the Cubs have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 7th-weakest out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Miller is expected to ring up an average of 16.4 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Mitch Garver has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.13 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 3.92 vs Seattle Mariners 4.18

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