Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – 4/30/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 30, 2025, both teams find themselves in starkly different situations. The Cubs are currently riding high with an 18-12 record, firmly in contention within the National League Central. In contrast, the Pirates are struggling at 11-19, having endured a rough start to the season and ranking as the 24th best offense in MLB.

In their previous matchup, the Cubs showcased their dominance with a convincing victory, further solidifying their position as one of the league's top teams. They rank 2nd in MLB offense, bolstered by a solid batting average and a potent home run count. The Cubs' best hitter has been on fire, boasting a .412 batting average and an impressive 1.327 OPS over the last week.

On the mound, Carmen Mlodzinski is set to take the hill for the Pirates. Despite being a right-handed pitcher with a high groundball rate of 51%, Mlodzinski's ERA of 6.95 this season places him among the worst in MLB, and he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today while allowing 2.8 earned runs on average. Meanwhile, Matthew Boyd will offer the Cubs a strong left-handed presence, currently holding an excellent ERA of 2.54. Boyd's ability to limit runs will be crucial as he faces a Pirates lineup that has struggled to generate offense consistently.

Given the Cubs' offensive firepower and Boyd's solid performance metrics, today's game total of 8.5 runs appears to favor the visitors. The projections suggest that the Cubs will score significantly, positioning them well to capitalize on the Pirates' ongoing struggles. With the Pirates needing a breakthrough, they face an uphill battle against a Cubs team that is not only better on paper but also performing at a much higher level on the field.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Boyd today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Seiya Suzuki has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 98.2-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Chicago Cubs in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .333, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .345 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Carmen Mlodzinski's fastball spin rate has decreased 165 rpm this season (2124 rpm) below where it was last year (2289 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is an extreme groundball batter and faces the weak infield defense of Chicago (#29-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 56% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.66, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.34

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Carmen Mlodzinski - Pirates

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.