Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 5/4/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 4, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will face off against the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field in a critical National League Central matchup. The Brewers currently hold a record of 16-18, struggling this season, while the Cubs sit atop the division with an impressive 21-13 record. In their previous game, the Cubs emerged victorious, adding pressure on the Brewers as they look to bounce back.

Freddy Peralta takes the mound for Milwaukee, sporting a solid ERA of 2.52. However, his xFIP of 3.93 indicates he may have been a bit fortunate thus far. Peralta projects to average 5.6 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out a respectable 6.4 batters. Yet, his high flyball rate (43 FB%) could be a cause for concern against a Cubs lineup that ranks 2nd in the league with 52 home runs.

Shota Imanaga counters for Chicago, offering an ERA of 2.77 and a more pedestrian xFIP of 4.67. Though he is considered an average pitcher by the projections, Imanaga has been effective, making him a difficult matchup for the Brewers. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs while striking out 5.2 batters.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 16th in MLB, which is average, while the Cubs boast the 2nd best offense, leading the league in batting average and home runs. This significant disparity in offensive firepower gives the Cubs an edge going into the game. Betting markets have set the Game Total at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations of a tightly contested duel, though the Brewers' low implied team total of 3.75 runs reflects their struggles at the plate.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 7 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Shota Imanaga meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.4% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta's fastball spin rate of 2439 rpm grades out in the 87th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Milwaukee has performed as the #30 group of hitters in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (11.5% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.65 Units / 42% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 60% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.36, Milwaukee Brewers 4.3

• Date: May 4, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

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