Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 3/29/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on March 29, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their early-season records. The Diamondbacks currently stand at 1-1, while the Cubs have struggled to a 1-3 start. This matchup marks the third game in their series, and both teams are eager to gain momentum.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start Brandon Pfaadt, who ranks as the 94th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he is an average performer. Pfaadt is expected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.3 batters. However, his projections suggest he may struggle with hits, allowing an average of 5.1, which is concerning for the D-Backs. On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Shota Imanaga, ranked 69th in MLB, who is above average. Imanaga is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs but also giving up 5.3 hits.

The Diamondbacks have a favorable moneyline set at -120, reflecting a high implied team total of 4.35 runs. This is a positive sign considering the Cubs' current woes, as they sit at 1-3 and are projected for an average team total of 4.15 runs. Despite their average start, the Diamondbacks have a solid chance to capitalize on the Cubs' struggles, especially with Imanaga’s below-average strikeout projection of 4.3.

With both teams looking to bounce back, the Diamondbacks hold the edge in this matchup, bolstered by their home-field advantage and slightly better projections. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest. Betting markets suggest this will be a close game, but Arizona may just have the upper hand.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (43.5% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt has a mean projection of 15.9 outs in this game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.4% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 116 games (+27.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

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