Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres Prediction For 4/10/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Overview

• Date: April 10, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -175, Padres -1.5 150
• Money Line: Cubs 120, Padres -140
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 44%
• San Diego Padres - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 40.56%
• San Diego Padres - 59.44%

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

On April 10, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Chicago Cubs in a National League matchup at Petco Park. The Padres, with a season record of 6-7, are having a below-average season, while the Cubs boast a great season so far, with a record of 6-4.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who has had a solid performance this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cease is ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him a great asset for the Padres. On the other hand, the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this season. Despite his poor performance, Hendricks has the potential to turn things around based on his peripheral indicators.

Cease has started two games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1. His ERA stands at an impressive 3.37, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. However, his 3.88 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far this season and could see a regression in his performance going forward. Hendricks, on the other hand, has also started two games with a win/loss record of 0-1. His ERA is a concerning 11.74, but his 5.04 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could see improvement in his future outings.

Cease is projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 7.2 batters, but also allowing 4.3 hits and 2.3 walks on average. Hendricks, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 3.4 batters, but also allowing 5.6 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Padres rank 11th in MLB, while the Cubs rank 4th, indicating the Cubs' superior offensive firepower. However, the Padres rank 10th in team home runs and 7th in team stolen bases, showcasing their ability to generate scoring opportunities.

Considering the projected performance of the pitchers and the offensive rankings, the Padres enter this game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% win probability. The Cubs, as the underdog, hold a moneyline of +120, giving them a 44% win probability.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Cody Bellinger has been cold of late, compiling a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) over the last two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Garrett Cooper, Michael Busch).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake Cronenworth may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 3.86 vs San Diego Padres 4.46

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