Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 6/9/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: June 9, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Frankie Montas - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on June 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in a closely contested National League Central matchup. The Reds, with a record of 32-33, are having an average season, while the Cubs, at 31-34, are slightly below average. This is the fourth game in the series, and the Reds will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Great American Ball Park.

On the mound, the Reds will start right-hander Frankie Montas, who has a 3-4 record with a solid 4.00 ERA over 11 starts. Montas is ranked as the 87th best starting pitcher, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, which is above average. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate this season and could see a regression.

Opposing Montas will be the Cubs' left-hander Shota Imanaga, who boasts an impressive 5-1 record and a stellar 1.88 ERA in his 11 starts. Ranked 67th among starting pitchers, Imanaga has displayed excellent control with a low 4.0% walk rate. However, his 3.39 xFIP indicates that he, too, has benefited from some luck and may not sustain his current level of performance.

Offensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. The Reds' lineup ranks 17th in overall offense but struggles with a 26th-place ranking in team batting average. They do, however, excel in base-stealing, ranking 2nd in MLB. The Cubs' offense is ranked 20th, with a poor 27th ranking in batting average but showing average power with a 16th-place ranking in home runs and 12th in stolen bases.

In their last game, the Reds' TJ Friedl has been on fire, hitting .308 with a 1.163 OPS over the past week, contributing 10 RBIs and 3 home runs. On the Cubs' side, Seiya Suzuki has also been hot, batting .286 with a 1.089 OPS, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs in his last six games.

Betting markets have this game as a close contest, with the Cubs slightly favored at -120, implying a 52% win probability, while the Reds are at +100, implying a 48% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns closely with these odds, giving the Cubs a 51% chance to win and the Reds a 49% chance.

With both teams projected to score over four runs, this game promises to be an exciting and competitive matchup. The Reds' patient offense may struggle against Imanaga's control, potentially tipping the scales in favor of the Cubs. Nonetheless, with both teams eager to improve their standings, expect a hard-fought battle at Great American Ball Park.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of all SPs, Shota Imanaga's fastball spin rate of 2436 rpm is in the 83rd percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Miguel Amaya's speed has dropped off this season. His 26.18 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.8 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today, Seiya Suzuki is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 41.1% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Frankie Montas has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

T.J. Friedl has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .353 rate is a fair amount higher than his .282 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Stuart Fairchild, Luke Maile, Blake Dunn, Elly De La Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.06 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.7

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.