Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox Pick For 4/26/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox
• Run Line: Cubs -1.5 155, Red Sox 1.5 -180
• Money Line: Cubs -110, Red Sox -110
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 50%
• Boston Red Sox - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 47.47%
• Boston Red Sox - 52.53%

Chicago Cubs vs Boston Red Sox Game Preview & Prediction

On April 26, 2024, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Boston Red Sox in an Interleague matchup at Fenway Park. The Red Sox will be the home team, hosting the Cubs. This game marks the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Red Sox are having an above-average season with a record of 14-12 so far. Meanwhile, the Cubs are having a great season with a record of 16-9. Both teams have been performing well, making this an exciting matchup.

The Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kutter Crawford, who has been impressive this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crawford is ranked as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his talent and ability.

On the other side, the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga. Although he is considered an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings, his performance this season has been excellent, with a win-loss record of 3-0 and an ERA of 0.84.

Crawford has started five games this season, boasting a 1-0 win-loss record and an outstanding ERA of 0.66. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could regress going forward. In comparison, Imanaga has started four games with a perfect 3-0 win-loss record and an impressive ERA of 0.84. Like Crawford, his xFIP indicates potential regression in his performance.

The Red Sox offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB this season, while the Cubs offense ranks 7th. Both teams have solid batting averages, but the Cubs have a slight edge in stolen bases. However, the Red Sox have a better team batting average and rank higher in home runs.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cubs have the advantage according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, ranking as the 10th best bullpen in MLB. In contrast, the Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 25th best.

In terms of betting odds, the moneyline is set at -110 for both teams, indicating a close game with an equal implied win probability of 50% for each team. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

Considering the projections and rankings, the Cubs may have an advantage due to Crawford's high-walk tendencies and the Cubs' patient offense, which ranks third in walks in MLB. However, the Red Sox's strong offense and home-field advantage at Fenway Park could level the playing field.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Shota Imanaga encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all starting pitchers, Kutter Crawford's fastball spin rate of 2446 rpm is in the 85th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games at home (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Michael Busch has only hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (-0.10 Units / -1% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction: Cubs 4.08 - Red Sox 4.06

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