Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 4/15/2025

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The matchup on April 15, 2025, features the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the Boston Red Sox at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Both teams are off to a mediocre start, with the Rays sitting at 8-8 and the Red Sox struggling at 8-10. This American League East clash holds significance as it marks the second game in the series between these rivals.

In their previous encounter, Tampa Bay secured a 16-1 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess which currently ranks as the 8th best in MLB. The Rays excel with a .273 batting average, standing 4th overall, but a lack of power is evident with only a 18th rank in home runs. The Red Sox, while boasting a respectable 9th rank in batting average, have faced challenges hitting for power, ranking 21st in home runs. However, they remain a dangerous team on the basepaths, ranking 4th in stolen bases.

On the mound, Tampa Bay will feature Ryan Pepiot, who has demonstrated impressive form with a 3.38 ERA and a 1-1 record over three starts. Despite being ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB, it's worth noting that his 4.11 xFIP indicates he may be due for regression. Pepiot's tendency to walk batters could play into the hands of Boston's patient offense, which ranks 4th in MLB for walks drawn.

The Red Sox counter with Walker Buehler, who has had a tough start with a 5.74 ERA. Despite being projected to pitch a comparable 5.2 innings, his performance has not matched expectations; his xFIP suggests he might improve but his season has been riddled with inconsistency. The projections for the game suggest a total of 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive scoring affair.

With Tampa Bay's implied team total at 4.71 runs and Boston's at 4.29, the Rays could find themselves taking advantage of Buehler's struggles while relying on their more potent lineup to secure a win.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler has used his curveball 8.5% less often this year (10.7%) than he did last season (19.2%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Triston Casas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot's 2391-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 77th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

From last season to this one, Christopher Morel's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 94.7 mph to 90.7 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Danny Jansen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 77 of their last 135 games (+20.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.51, Tampa Bay Rays 4.27

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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